Trend-based population projections

*Update 6 August - draft 2024-based projections are now available. Final versions of these projections are expected to be published early in 2026. More information about these can be found in this blog post.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex. The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates. Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here

• 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs.

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